Tribal legends claim that in the foothills of the Afghan mountains, Cain (Qabil), an arable farmer, committed the first murder by killing his brother Abel (Habil), the shepherd. Cain and Abel have long been understood as the first and second sons of Adam and Eve in the religions of Judaism, Islam, and Christianity. Their story is told in the Bible and Torah at Genesis 4:1-16 and the Qur’an at 5:26-32. Although their story is cited in the Quran, neither of them is mentioned by name.
In present-day Afghanistan, this story comes to life in a figurative sense: Cain, the poppy-growing farmer, continues to kill Abel, the shepherd who lives in the mountains. Even leaving myths and fables side, sons of Afghanistan have been killing each other, albeit with external assistance, for thirty years.
But things may change for better—or worse—on Thursday, when Afghanistan holds its second democratic presidential election; its first democratic election in 2004 yielded Hamid Karzai as president. In preparation for this historical event, President Barack Obama has ordered 17,000 US troops to Afghanistan since assuming the office of President in January 2009. Obama had hoped to head off as much insurgence as possible before the election, thereby assuring a mostly peaceful vote that can be viewed as legitimate, both by Afghans and the international community.
The likelihood of a nonviolent Afghanistan on August 20 seems a bit much to ask for. The Taliban has already promised forceful opposition to the election, threatening to cut off the ink-stained fingers of those who cast their votes. Taliban leaders across Afghanistan have asked true followers of Islam to boycott the election, and foreign and local troops alike are ramping up security around polling centers in anticipation of potential unrest. However, the possibility remains that Taliban threats will keep people away from the polls on Thursday, and this eventuality could mean problems for Afghanistan in the future.
This election is critical not only for Afghanistan but for all stakeholders including the United States, Pakistan, India, and Iran; and not for the same reason. One cannot be certain that this election will optimize governance model or reduce corruption or for that matter enhance security posture: all inter-related variables, all necessary for a stable Afghanistan.
Our friend at Carnegie Council Mr. David Speedie who has just released four policy papers on Afghanistan points out that “the U.S./NATO and Russia have clear and urgent common interests in promoting long-term stability in Afghanistan, yet cooperation between Russia and the West is “episodic,” rather than strategic or systematic.” Speedie advises us to look at Afghanistan in the broader context of Central Asia and feels that current challenges facing NATO may render it “obsolete in its present form.”
For Pakistan this election is critical because it will determine how Afghanistan is positioned in the geo-political landscape. First of all, if Afghanistan is decoupled from its South Asian neighbor and aligned with Central Asian states, Pakistan will loose leverage. But an unstable Afghanistan, the status quo, is detrimental for Pakistan as well. Secondly, if Afghanistan continues to develop deeper ties with India it will create imbalances in the region. It is no secret or exaggeration that India’s growing influence in Afghanistan comes at the expense of Pakistan’s interest. Exploiting the post 9/11 situation and piggy backing on the US invasion, India has accelerated its own presence and influence in Afghanistan. Outcome of the election will determine which direction this tide will turn.
In an August 13 question-and-answer session, Karin von Hippel, codirector of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at Washington D.C.’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, responded to questions about the fate of Afghanistan in the face of these elections. When asked about the possible outcomes of voting, von Hippel described a few different scenarios, the first being that incumbent Hamid Karzai would win by a small percentage over 50%, which is what he needs to win without a runoff with another opponent. Von Hippel thinks this will most likely create the least amount of instability, since any large margin of victory for Karzai might cause “accusations of fraud, public challenges by competing candidates, and potentially widespread violence in the north and in Kabul where many Tajiks live.”
Another possible development involves a runoff, most likely between Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, a half-Tajik, half-Pashtun doctor who is widely considered to be Karzai’s biggest competition. This situation might also lead to hostility, since a strong Taliban presence in majority Pashtun districts might lead to a low voter turnout in areas where Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun, has the biggest following. In the case of a runoff, most polls predict a win for Karzai.
Whatever the outcome of the election, von Hippel feels “the results will be considered a positive step for Afghanistan if they are perceived as mostly free and fair,” although at the moment a free and fair outcome does not seem highly probable. In Kabul on August 17, Abdullah told a crowd of supporters that his victory was ensured, as long as the election was fair and no fraud was committed. In a country like Afghanistan where tension runs high and a governmental shift could mean the difference between life and death for many people, these statements are highly inflammatory. In fact, some fear that Abdullah’s talk of election fraud will cause his supporters to riot if he does not emerge victorious.
To be fair, Abdullah’s allegation of fraud is not the mere blathering of a man desperate for power. Indeed, there have been rumblings of discontent with the voting process from many corners over the past few weeks. In addition to the discovery of thousands of fake voter registration cards across the country, as many as 700 of 7,000 planned polling locations are expected to be shut down due to violence, particularly in Taliban strongholds in the south. If this is the case, it is no wonder many cannot bring themselves to hope for a truly democratic election.
Karzai and Abdullah have stolen much of the international media spotlight aimed at Afghanistan in the weeks preceding the election, but there are in fact two other contenders who are seen as potential dark horses in the upcoming race. Ramazan Bashardost, an ethnic Hazara with a formidable education, is making headway in the election, gaining approval as an outspoken opponent of the current corruption and abuse of power that exists in Afghanistan’s government.
Ashraf Ghani, an ethnic Pashtun and respected scholar, is a former Afghan finance minister and World Bank senior analyst. Ghani enjoys a great deal of popularity on the international level as a result of his thoughts on state building, and his campaign has focused on terminating governmental corruption in Afghanistan and developing a strong infrastructure for Afghanistan.
Neither Bashardos nor Ghani are expected to win a large amount of votes on Thursday, but their presence in the election is vital, if only as obstacles to a runoff-free win for Karzai.
Regardless of outcome, Thursday’s elections will be a huge milestone for Afghanistan, and an event that will determine not only its president, but also the outlook for the future.
India is already hoping for a Karzai win: President Karzai who studied in Indian University and has enjoyed living there during his youth fully embraced India in his last term. India is looking for access to the energy-rich Central Asian states like Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan and views Kabul as a gateway. India is also eager to neutralize Pakistan’s influence. But India that has historically supported Northern Alliance, Rasheed Dostum and other anti-Pushtoon elements is bound to change the eco-system of the region. Even after US leaves, Afghanistan will have to deal with this regional hegemony.
Ibrahim Sajid Malick is a Pakistani-American writer, technologist, and social entrepreneur. He has been writing on Pakistani society and politics since 1986. He has held several media, communications, and technology positions for organizations large and small. Mr. Malick graduated from New School for Social Research with a master’s degree in anthropology. He holds several technology and management certifications. He works for a leading technology firm and blogs at www.ibrahimsajidmalick.com
India and Afghanistan historically have shared close cultural and political ties, and the complexity of their diplomatic history reflects this fact. India supported successive governments in Kabul until the rise of the Taliban in the 1990s, and was among the first non-Communist states to recognize the government installed by the Soviet Union after its 1989 invasion. But like most countries, India never recognized the Taliban’s assumption of power in 1996 (only Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates recognized the Taliban regime). Following the 9/11 attacks and the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan that resulted, ties between India and Afghanistan grew strong once again. India has restored full diplomatic relations, and has provided hundreds of millions of dollars in aid for Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development. But Pakistan views India’s growing influence in Afghanistan as a threat to its own interests in the region. Experts fear for Afghanistan’s stability as India and Pakistan compete for influence in the war-torn country.
Afghanistan holds strategic importance for India as New Delhi seeks friendly allies in the neighborhood, and because it is a gateway to energy-rich Central Asian states such as Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. “India is looking to ensure that other countries in the region favor or at least are neutral on its conflict with Pakistan,” says J Alexander Thier, an expert on Afghanistan at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Afghanistan, on the other hand, he says, looks to India as “a potential counterweight in its relationship with Pakistan.” India’s influence in Afghanistan waned in the 1990s after Pakistan-backed Taliban rose to power. During this period, New Delhi provided assistance to the anti-Taliban resistance, the Northern Alliance, comprised mostly of Tajik and other non-Pashtun ethnic groups, according to a 2003 Council Task Force report. After the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, New Delhi reached out to renew ties with Kabul. India-Afghanistan relations further received a boost from the fact that many current Afghan leaders, including President Hamid Karzai, studied at Indian universities.
Pre-election violence in Afghanistan, combined with Taliban threats to cut off the fingers of those who participate, have led to concerns that turnout could be low. Analysts say any of the top candidates in the presidential race could work hand-in-hand with the U.S. government, other concerns abound. Pre-election violence has already rocked the country in the days leading up to the election, most recently with a Taliban homicide bomber attacking a NATO convoy Tuesday outside Kabul, killing at least eight people and wounding more than 50. Such attacks, combined with Taliban threats to cut off the fingers of those who participate, have led to concerns that turnout could be low. Low turnout could give way to charges that the election results are illegitimate.Adding to that is concern about the kind of political post-election tumult that engulfed Iran, as Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s top opponent Abdullah Abdullah suggests to supporters that if he loses it will be because of fraud.Most Afghans believe that the next president has already been chosen by Washington, so the legitimacy of the election is already in question,” Innocent said.
While the presumed Washington pick is Karzai, Innocent said a win by Abdullah would not be a “setback” for the administration but a “boon,” since Karzai has faced criticism in the West and his country for persistent corruption among officials and poor security even inside Kabul city limits.
The way to success in Afghanistan is to stop:
♦ Trying to remake it into a democracy.
♦ Going after the Taliban in military sweeps reminiscent of the Vietnam war. Didn’t work then, won’t work here.
♦ Trying to control territory. Again, use the lesson Vietnam taught.
♦ Trying to implement social changes we want to see, i.e. full equality for women. This is a job for after the country has been stabilized.
♦ Trying to stop the growing of poppies.
What we should be after in the country is self-determination free of noxious elements such as the Taliban or Al Qaeda; self determination does not mean “impose a Western-style government on the country”. It means exactly what it says—the Afghans will have to determine what kind of government they want themselves, and provided that what they chose isn’t openly hostile or inimical to America they should be given free rein.
Target the Taliban leadership with Predator missiles. Works every time, works like a charm in fact.
If the Taliban feel threatened enough in any area due to Predator targeting and the like, they will cede control of it themselves. No need to fire a shot.
Sure would be nice to have full equality for women, but since that isn’t the case in any Mideast Muslim country, insisting upon it in Afghanistan would be tying us to an anvil. It’s their country—this is the sort of thing they will have to sort out for themselves.
Leave the poppy growers alone, but go after the traffickers with Predators and even cruise missiles if necessary. Farmers need to grow poppies in certain areas, otherwise there is no other source of income. So spare them the attacks—nobody will shed even a crocodile tear if a trafficker gets killed.
The problem with Afghanistan, as I see it, is that its something that can#t be solved in the short term, and yet a long term commitment makes the forces we oppose more entrenched. I actually honestly don’t know the way out of the problem. What I do know is that the whole region has become more unstable. (and its a big region, stretching through Pakistan and India). I would suggest that the only way to sort the problem is long term. There is no short term answer. Upping sticks and withdrawing would surely just further destabilise a dangerous reason.
I think perhaps the best way is to genuinely make Afghanistan a Democracy. Not foisting western ideas on them, but encouraging them to choose their leaders with minimal intervention from the outside world. They aren’t necesarily going to pick someone we like, but I think it would send out a message to the whole of the wider region, spreading east and west, about what democracy actually is.
Umm, as an Afghan, I don’t know why you lumped Tajik and Hazara together on your pie chart. Hazara belong to the Asian race– likely descendents of the Mongols. Tajiks are a caucasian Persian tribe, like the Pashtuns. The two groups both oppose the Pashtuns who are dominant politically, but still, that pie chart is misleading and confusing.
Also, in the major cities, there is intermarriage between all ethnic groups, so it’s difficult to to categorize every Afghan as Pashtun or Tajik or Hazara
I cannot help but feel that the election process in Afghanistan will be the lesser for the inclusion of Democratic political gnome, James Carville, who has been working as a “consultant” for Karzai rival, Ashraf Ghani.
I wonder if he’s had his candidate go negative yet or if the robocalls are annoying voters all over Kabul?
One thing you don’t need any poll to tell you is that Afghans have got to be eternally sick and tired of having foreign troops on their soil. And history tells us there will be no military solution for the US in this very sad and very dangerous country we will never understand
Karzai is crooked, his brother is a drug dealer, big time. Not so sure Karzi is not involved. Stop the aid, let the people fight for their own country. Karzi would leave immediately if the aid stopped.
Afghanistan had put lot of influence on South Asia in the past, near past, present and in future. Afghanistan became battle field among two super powers and one defeated. After that new world order introduced that world order created 9/11 and Afghanistan again became battle field. But this time fight of Single super power and its allies with unknown power. Guantanamo Bay created to find unknown enemy after failing announced to be closed. Personal enmity of Bush family ruined Iraq and after “CHANGE” gradually pull out of troops with out no excuse. Tried to create trouble in Iran but filed.
Now there is a tri-moorti active in Afghanistan. Yesterdays India ally of USSR is todays friend of USA. But we know USA is friend of only its benefit it is slogan “Secured USA” and USA will never compromise on it. Afghanistan just is an active battle field but there is a cold war around this country and no one is aware about this cold war. New President will also come in result of that cold war. But situation will become worse rather then stable in the Afghanistan particularly and in the region generally.
It is a need for super power to learn lessons from the past and review its new world order other wise we are looking new super powers of the future.
My name is zain ul abidin i just want to say that india is trying to use Afghans against Pakistan and at last kick them out. but it will never success because we are muslims not going to believe hindus
Well I think we are too much optimistic and going well ahead of time. In old stories we use to hear that their is an ‘amrat Dra” a drink which will cure all the deaseas.But the new Amrat Dara of the day is the democracy. well we all shell see soon that democracy is not the solution to every problem. democracy is a system of government which may not be applicable to every nation. So to expect too much from democracy to deliver in Afghanistan is a wishfull thinking. but we must give a chance to democracy atleast a try! since democracy is free will of people and not an instrument to be imposed,it envisage an equal oppertunity to all the people who live in Afghanistan, which includes the taliban. They are the people of the Afghanistan and they not only ruled the country but the one who had liberated the country from the jaws of communism. they were hereos for the world when they were fighting against the communist and now they are still fighting against an occupation force which they see as an invader. we can not rule them out and simply lable them all as terrorist.we need to understand the fact that majority of these people have sacrificed alot for their counrty and they are still doing so. the nothren allaince which we support today are the same people whom the russian supported in the passed.they were the devile then now they have suddenly emerged as the survivors. I think this is a great injustice with those eighty thousand martyrs who laid their lives to get freedom from the communists. Afghan situation is quite complex and it needs to be seen in that context. Branding all the talibans ie the Pastoon as the terrorist will not help us to achieve the desired peace in the country. If Democracy is the right of people then the talibans are also peopl of the same country who enjoys popular support throughout the Afghanistan and we must respect the will of the majority of the people. I think the world must give a chance to the taliban to negotiate and settle the issue with political insight rather imposing our agendas with the help of bombs and missiles. the sit in afaghanistan today is no different then it was in eighties. only the outside partners have change. we have seen the outcome of the situation then it wont be much different this time if the mondus oprendai remains the same. We must learn from the history and from others mistakes in the past and change our way of dealing it. Democracy does not mean westrenization. democracy alone does not mean success and prosperity. there have been much more prosperous and peac loving nations in the past without democracy. the important thing is the will of people. I think that should be respected and left to them that what sort of system of govt appeals to them.
my name is bilal shah
and i want to say that india is just taking the affiliation of afgan government to attack on our beloved PAKISTAN
he is doing so because he forget 1965 war
and inshahallah he never got his aim inshahallah
SSAJ,
Ibrahim Bhai,
I appreciapt on What you state India is Doing in Afghanistan, but dont you think it would be fair if you would also have an Article “What Pakistan has been & is still doing in Kashmir”
Make me beleive that you are a true beliver on the All Mighty and are not afraid to see the truth.
Kind Regards
sardar ji i think its not 12,o,colck.pakistan is doing in kashmir? with 10 million indian army in the vally…. wow! think about it!!
Union of Afgahnistan and Pakistan
By M. Akram Khan, Balida Town, Karachi, Pakistan, 15 October 2009
The only solution to the present problem of instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan is in the Union of these two countries based on principles of Democracy and Federalism.
In history, Durani Empire was composed of all the areas in which today’s Pakistan and Afghanistan are located, and during the Mughal Empire together they were a single country. In the initial period of the British Empire, they were also the same country.
Later, some forces that had vested interests kept a distance between these lands. Consequently, border areas between these two countries became hiding places for criminals of both countries, thieves of automobiles and other stolen goods. They are stored in this region. This large uncontrollable area is a base for many evils.
Here narcotics are grown; addiction is destroying the youth and humanity. Because the region is not developed and poverty is rampant, people are attracted to extremism and militancy.
Union of both countries will make the single government more responsible in stabilizing this region and in satisfying the nationalistic pride of its inhabitants. People will be able to serve humanity as other large nations of the world do. Otherwise, this region will always remain a nuisance for the world. It destroyed Soviet Union. It may also take down the western world, which will be a great blow to the development of Science and Technology, especially Medical science.
Advantages to the world:
Control of terrorism:
Instability in this region is causing great damage to humanity. Soldiers of many countries are sacrificing their lives just to eliminate terrorists from these countries. In the presence of a unified government, it will be easier to control terrorists.
Control of extremism:
As a unified nation composed of multiethnic groups such as the Punjabis, Sindhis, Baluchis, Pashtuns, Urdu speakers, Tajiks, Persians and Hazaras, and as a multisectarian society such as Sunni and Shiites, it will become impossible for any ethnic group or religious sect to find any future in extremism.
Stabilization of the region:
Although it is now that the problems of this region have gained attention, it has suffered from instability for a long time. People here are finding no hope, no future for themselves, partly because of interference from foreign countries, such as the British Empire, Soviet Union, USA, China and India. When they were unified under the Durani Empire, the region was stable. The same was the case during the Mughal Empire.
There are three main groups in Asia, i.e. the Chinese, Hindus and Muslims. Chinese and Hindus are satisfied with their states of China and India. The Muslim population in Asia is greater than the Chinese and Hindus combined. However, having no comparable state of their own they experience the stress of inferiority. That element too is causing instability and irritation amongst common Muslims. By creating a unified state of Pakistan and Afghanistan, a sense of satisfaction, pride and respect of having a national state will be achieved. That might lead to normalization of relations with the rest of the world and stability.
Solution to economic problems
At present, both countries are burdens on others, and pose barriers in exploring the resources of Central Asia by the world. After stabilization, it will be useful not only for Central Asia and for the World, but also for the new unified nation itself.
Advantages to Pakistan:
It was the vision of Quaid-e-Azam, the Founder of Pakistan, to unify the regions of West Pakistan, Afghanistan, East Pakistan, Malaysia and Indonesia. That probably needs time. It took many centuries for Europeans to realize that they shared a common goal.
• By unification with Afghanistan, areas, which are included in Pakistan, will stabilize, and migration of people from disturbed areas will stop.
• Smuggling of weapons across the borders will end, and Law and Order will be established.
• Similarly, illicit drug trade will be minimized.
• Whole areas of Pukhtoons (Pashtuns) speaking population will unify, and that will help the development of culture and language of that group which is now divided in two nations.
• Expenses for Security measures on the borders will be minimal. The resultant balance can be used for the welfare of people.
• Interference of other nations in this region will subside.
• Due to unique historical importance for Buddhists and Hindus, tourism industry will flourish and business activity in the region will increase.
Advantages to Afghanistan:
• Through unification, Afghanistan will cease to be a land locked country. The union will promote freedom of people of Afghanistan to travel and engage in economic activity,
• Extremism and terrorism will come to and end, as the people will become more engaged and involved in adjusting themselves in the new union. Utilization of raw products of Afghanistan will increase.
• Security and military expenses will minimize.
• Doors to Pakistan will open to Afghanis who look for jobs in Pakistan.
• Shortage of food products in Afghanistan will decrease and it will increase the utilization of raw products of Afghanistan.
• Linking Central Asia via Afghanistan to the rest of the world will generate extraordinary development.
Based on above observations, suggestions and predictions, it is clear that unification of Pakistan and Afghanistan will be fruitful for everyone in the region and for the world at large.
Mr. M. Akram Khan Niazi can be reached at akrumniazi@hotmail.com
@Zain ul Abidin: Long live your Majesty’s saying! It would be so enlightening if you can please shed light on the source of your heavenly knowledge. If you guys can use a share of Nature’s boon to humans, things could be so different and so beautiful. Use you conscience and self thinking abilities. Propaganda and religious fanaticism would only lead to destruction. First understand what being a Muslim is and perhaps you will get the answer. They were not supposed to kill others in name of Islam preaching, but rather protect themselves. You guys have no idea how much you have hurt the basic sentiments of your religion itself. May peace and brotherhood prevail!