The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Monday said that foreign investment in Pakistan fell 22 percent to $1.73 billion in the first 10 months of the 2009/10 fiscal year but country’s current account deficit in the same fiscal period narrowed to a provisional $3.060 billion.

Foreign investment in Pakistan during the same period last year was $2.21 billion in the same period last year and the current account deficit was $8.982 billion.

Analysts point out that higher current transfers and receipt of logistical support payments from the US contribute to lowering deficit. The US embassy said this month it had released $656 million to Pakistan from its so-called coalition support fund for costs incurred last year in fighting Islamist militants, with $188 million transfered in late April 30 and $468 million in May.

The $188 million is reflected in the current account data for April and analysts said the remaining $468 million will be reflected in May’s data which should show a further narrowing of the deficit.

The trade deficit for the July to April period of the 2009/10 (July-June) fiscal year was $12.24 billion, compared with $14.22 billion in the same period last year.

Analysts said they expected the current account deficit to keep narrowing on falling international oil prices.

“We see a similar trend continuing in coming months with the recent decline in international oil prices further helping lessen pressure on the BOP (balance of payments),” Qureshi said.

Oil fell below $70 a barrel on Monday, its lowest in more than three months, extending a loss of nearly 17 percent over the past two weeks on fears over Europe’s debts, the weak euro and swollen US oil inventories.

Pakistan recorded a provisional current account deficit of $185 million in April compared with a provisional $40 million in March.

In a quarterly report on the economy released in March, the central bank lowered its forecast for the 2009/10 current account deficit to 3.2-3.8 percent of gross domestic product, from previous estimates of 3.7-4.7 percent.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) emergency loan package of $7.6 billion agreed in November 2008 helped avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves.

The IMF increased the loan to $11.3 billion in July and approved the fifth tranche of $1.13 billion on May 14.

But foreign investment in Pakistan continues to face decline. Out of total foreign investment, foreign direct investment fell 44.7 percent to $1.77 billion in the July to April period, from $3.20 billion in the year-ago period, the State Bank said.

Worsening security situation, with a Taliban insurgency in the country’s northwest, coupled with chronic power shortages, have kept risk averse investors out of the country .

There was a net outflow of $46.6 million of foreign portfolio investment in the first 10 months of this (July-June) fiscal year, compared with a net outflow of $992.6 million in the same period last year.

Authorities imposed a floor on the Karachi Stock Exchange benchmark index in August 2008 as political uncertainity and economic and security worries drained investor confidence.

The floor discouraged new investment and also led to a sharp outflow of funds, as foreign investors sold holdings in off-market trade.

The International Monetary Fund announced Friday that it will release $1.13 billion aid package for Pakistan despite country’s failure to meet conditions specified in loan agreement.

Pakistan had requested for a waiver for its inability to meet quarterly budget deficit target and net government borrowing limits from the State Bank of Pakistan.

Murilo Portugal, IMF’s deputy managing director and acting chairman said, “preparations for important and politically difficult tax reforms have moved forward, and there has been steady progress in financial sector reform”.

IMF has approved total of $10.66 billion loan for Pakistan and with the release of $1.13 billion it has disbursed $7.27 billion so far. IMF has also accepted Pakistan’s request to merge the remaining three payment instalments into two. The IMF said Pakistan has missed two conditions because of the delay in getting pledged aid from other nations.

Portugal said, “Pakistan’s vulnerabilities remain high, due to persistent inflation, security-related spending pressures, energy-sector problems and shortfalls in revenue collection and external financing”.

United States is exerting pressure on Pakistan to send troops to North Waziristan to fight Taliban who claimed responsibility for the recent failed bombing attempt in New York. The IMF announced its readiness to adjust Pakistan’s budget deficit and borrowing targets to let Pakistan manage necessary funding for such priority programs as security.

Portugal said, “these challenges highlight the importance of pursuing a credible fiscal consolidation, maintaining a flexible exchange rate and a cautious stance to monetary policy, and improving governance”.

IMF accepted Pakistan’s request to increase the end-June 2010 budget ceiling by 0.15 percent of gross domestic product, and the floor for net foreign assets of the State Bank of Pakistan was raised by $300 million.

Pakistan rupee gained esteem against US dollar but lost ground to the Euro Wednesday. Forex traders in Karachi Thursday plan to hold a short position on the US dollars with expectations that it will decline further.

Buy rate for dollars in the interbank market today were Rs. 85.00 and sell rates were Rs.85.05. In both directions Pakistan rupee was standing strong.

During the Asian trade dollar fell to its lowest in more than two months against yen as investors dumped long positions against other currencies that had built up to levels not seen in more than a year.

Investors have been picking up dollars in recent months as Greece’s credit and fiscal woes hit the euro and worries over a potential hung parliament and speculation that Britain’s asset-buying scheme could be revived knocked the pound lower.

The rupee was higher by 20 paisa against the US currency for buying and selling at 85.20 and 85.40 in open market. The dollar touched a two month low against the yen in Asia on Wednesday due to selling by Japanese exporters, falling long-term U.S. interest rates, and expectations for weak U.S. jobs data.

During Asian trading hours, the dollar fell to Y88.47 on EBS, the lowest since Y88.32 on Dec. 14. That compares with Y88.75 in New York late Tuesday.

If coming U.S. data are weaker than expected, adding to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not start raising its policy rate as soon as had been expected, U.S. yields could fall further, causing the dollar to decline more against the yen, Inoue said. He tips the dollar to trade in a range of Y83.00 to Y91.00 in the coming days.

However, Pakistan rupee lost 50 paisas againts the euro: buying and selling at 114.85 and Rs 115.35. The euro had hit a two-week high Wednesday against the dollar in a sign that Greece’s stepped-up efforts to cut its gaping budget deficit has helped calm investors fears over a possible debt crisis.

But the reprieve for the common currency may not last: There is no assurance the Greek measures will be fully implemented nor was there any word from Germany or France, the euro zone heavyweights, whether they would offer more than just verbal support to the debt-laden Greeks.

Investors are now waiting to see whether “an actual bailout will happen,” said Jessica Hoversen, fixed-income and foreign-exchange analyst at MF Global in Chicago.